To help you better prepare for the Agora Macro Dislocations Conference, we have assembled the following academic papers, research notes, and other educational resources published by our speakers:
Thalēs | December 2022
While macro counts among the longest-running, largest, and most successful managers, the strategy is polarizing. Its detractors will claim that its returns are factor-driven, that no one can sustain a repeatable edge in macro, and that it doesn’t perform consistently. Well, that’s partially true… Its defenders will point out that it offers diversification attributes, introduces convexity in portfolios, and delivers in times of crisis when other strategies underperform. That’s partially true too… Let’s look at the data.
Rose | December 2022
This notebook will walk through several charts showing the expansion of central bank balance sheets over the past 12 years and the performance of global equities during that time.
The USD Black Hole...
JDI Research | October 2022
The US economy is yet to show game-changing signs of endogenous weakness. It may yet endure even higher yields. However, the Fed’s hawkishness is hurting the rest of the world, where it drives relentless stagflationary forces. Bar an energy miracle, the choices in Europe and the UK are a deflationary depression or stealth devaluation. Will it take teetering on the verge of depression before electing monetization and slower disinflation? As domestic disinflationary forces become evident in the coming months, the Fed will pivot -- either because lower real yields abroad have unleashed ferocious USD strength or because overly tight global liquidity threatens global financial stability. As US yields never turn overly restrictive for the US economy, this should ensure a US soft landing.
Thalēs | October 2022
Indeed, the assumption that knowledge is immaculately preserved as humanity progresses is something of a fallacy. When neglected, carefully honed crafts and advanced technologies tend to fall by the wayside, oft erased from collective memory for generations. The delicate craft of global macro investing is no different. Our latest insight illustrates just how vulnerable the art of macro investing is to the relentless passage of time.
Eagle's View Contrarian Advisors | October 2022
I have taken the liberty of sharing some of my macro thoughts with respect to fundamental drivers as well as market mechanics and our trading approach. The purpose of this is to provide insight into how I view markets and the inputs that inform our trading decisions on both a shorter-term and longer-term basis.
Galapagos Capital | November 2022
As we have noted in recent pieces the main concern of investors has shifted to the possibility of recession in developed economies and in some cases -mostly from central bank officials- to potential problems of financial stability associated the rapid pace of central bank tightening after the events in the UK. Markets continue to bank on the supposition that the FED will pivot and reduce the pace of hikes aided by the perception that some officials weigh more financial stability or are more concerned about overtightening than controlling inflation. To be sure, the perceived dovishness propelled stock markets in the US to one of the best monthly returns on record in October, bear market or not. The FED’s November decision hopefully disabused markets of those notions by emphasizing that the pace of hikes is secondary to the more relevant issues like the terminal rate and how long it will need to stay at that level. To be sure, Jay Powell clearly indicated in his press conference that the terminal rate would be higher than they anticipated. The FED is going full steam ahead with little concern about the impact on the real economy; the path for a soft landing has narrowed and we continue to expect a mild recession in the latter half of 2023. After almost 15 years of cheap money, the bill is arriving. The world partied hard, and the hangover will be brutal for some. If anything, the FED kept the punchbowl going for far too long.
If you haven't already, please follow the link to register for the conference: